Disaster Date?

I’m greedy what can I say. I love snow, particularly big blizzards. It’s been nearly 3 years since our last all out blizzard in the 5 boroughs. Last year we missed to the north (to be fair some of the northern suburbs got hammered) and it looks like we will just miss again this year. This time it will be the Richmond to Baltimore corridor who gets hammered. Despite over 41″ of snow, missing this blizzard would make this winter a little disappointing.

So what’s happening? The eastern seaboard is getting ready to deal with a classic “Miller Type A” (scroll down a bit) . Basically that means a whole lot of moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico, turns up the east coast, runs into cold air and the Atlantic, and gets wound up like a jack-in-a box. Only instead of the jack popping out you get insane amounts of snow north and west of its cold core. Just south and east you get another coyote ugly. Further south and east, a lot of rain.

Wait, NYC is further north won’t it be colder? I wish it was that easy, but it’s not. Think of this storm as a date between high pressure (the girl) and low pressure (the guy). When all goes well there is deep conversation, sparks fly, love birds sing, and the couple ultimately fall in love at first sight.

Then there is disaster date. You can’t hold a conversation, you’re both bored, and eventually your date finds a way to slip out, leaving the guy with the bill to pay and scrambling to piece together the rest of his night. Right now this storm could go either way, but I’m leaning towards disaster date.

Typically for NYC and other areas east of 95, we need high pressure to be sitting over Montreal to deliver the loot (over a foot of snow).  In this case it seems that when the storm moves up the coast, the high pressure (cold air) will move further out to sea, which allows the storm to warm up the coastal areas. Never the words you want if you love a blizzard.

Ultimately it depends on how much cold air sticks around and the exact track of the storm. More cold air and a track off the coast and we get love at first site. Less cold air and a track that just hugs the coast and we get disaster date.

For those in some of the more northern and central burbs of NJ you should be getting close to a foot no matter what.

Initial Thoughts:
Northern NJ (north of exit 10 and west of the Turnpike): 12″ or more
Westchester North to I-84; CT west of 95 up to Stamford:  Up to 12″
Extreme NW NJ: 8-12 (love at first site); 12″ (disaster date)
Middle NJ East of the Turnpike, North of 195, and west of Garden State Parkway: 12″ or more (love at first site); up to 12″ (disaster date)

Love at First Sight Scenario:
NYC: 12-16″ inches of snow
Coastal NJ (East of Garden State Parkway): Up to 12″

Disaster Date:
NYC and other Coastal areas North: 4-8″ sloppy inches
Coastal NJ: 2-6″ sloppy inches

Friends and Family Forecast in DC/Baltimore Area:
Everyone will see a foot no matter what.
Immediate Annapolis Area: 12″
North of Beltway, South of baltimore, West of 97: 12-16″
South Baltimore County: 12-16″
DC: 10-14″
Montgomery County: 12-18″

Stay tuned for more updates!

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