Is She Going To Stand Me Up?

This storm might stand us up. That’s where I sit now with this storm. My heart is excited because some people are still thinking the NYC area could get hammered with snow, yet I now have a sinking feeling that the girl might not ever show up. Translation? NYC sees a complete washout for the city, a change to rain across the entire state of New Jersey, and dramatically lower snow totals in DC/Baltimore corridor.

Why? The cold air looks like it’s going to move well out to sea, the storm will track closer to the coast, and intensification will occur north of Long Island. What that means is warm air will be “pulled” in and change snow to a heavy rain. Any snow that does fall in NYC will quickly get washed away. For areas away from the coast, snow will stay around longer, but heavy rain will mix in and dramatically cut down on totals. Coastal areas of NJ, and areas east of JFK will likely see brief a period of snow then a steady heavy rain. DC and Baltimore won’t be spared either. Areas east of 95 will see a wintery mix. Areas west of 95 will see all snow but it will be a wetter, heavier snow.

The warm and inland track isn’t locked in stone yet, but if it hasn’t changed by tomorrow morning, its highly likely NYC will have another winter pass without a major nor’easter that produces 12″+ of snow.

Timing:
Snow will start around 1am Thursday and continue until around or before noon: Accumulations up to 4″
A heavy rain will develop around Noon and last till 1am Friday: Rain amounts up to .75″
From Friday 1am till 7am snow will redevelop: Accumulations up to 3″

More Official Forecast:
NYC Metro Area
NYC/Coastal CT: 3-6″ of total snow and .75″ of rain
Lower Hudson Valley/Westchester/Inland CT: 6-10″ of snow
Coastal NJ and East of JFK: Up to 2″ of snow, then 1-1.25 inches of rain
Central and North NJ: 4-8 inches of snow .25-.5″ of rain/wintery mix

Friends and Family in DC/Balt:
East of 95: 5-10″
West of 95: Around 12″

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