Well the data is in, and for the NYC area I am reducing my snowfall amounts and greatly increasing them for the Baltimore/DC area.
Essentially the Arctic air mass that is place will simply become Too Strong. Because of its strength, the bulk of the storms moisture will stay well south of the metro area. This also means it’s going to be very cold Sunday night into Monday. Any snow that does fall will be very fluffy due to higher snow ratios. The colder the air the less water there is in a snow flake, which helps produce “powder” or “blower” snow.
The cold could become weaker, and NYC gets back in the Juuuust Right zone, but I’d say there is a greater chance for us to receive almost no snow than receiving a foot of snow.
Baltimore/DC……you are now in the Juuust Right zone, and my confidence is growing that almost everyone will see close to a foot of snow. Some areas could see closer to 16″.
For now NYC, the all time snow record looks safe.
Northern Suburbs: 1-4″, the closer you are to the city the more you will receive.
Southern Suburbs: 6-10″, the closer you are the less snow you will see
NJ: From exit 9 to Exit 1: 8-12″