Hopefully everyone knows about El Nino and the massive impact its had on the East Coast winter that finally felt like it started this week. Basically, the waters off the equatorial pacific waters are well above average (some of the highest anomalies on record!). Good for west coast skiing, terrible for East coast winters due to the lack of cold air. During Strong El Nino years, the east coast typically sees above average precip, but above average temps, thus a lot of rain.
Sometimes though the east coast will have cold air in place, and because of the train of storms that comes across the western mountains, down into the gulf, and then up the east coast during El Nino winters, a big, bad, burley monster of a snow storm can erupt and puke snow.
If you are reading this and live in the Richmond to Baltimore corridor, you are in for a big snow event (maybe even a record setter in Richmond). For me, and my other readers, in the tri state area, we could get 10-16″, or a nuance 4″. Why?
These storms are always tricky (if you live in the baltimore dc area you can skip this part you are safely in a 20-30″ type snow scenario) and depend on track. Forecasting these storms requires looking at a lot of different sources of data (weather models), reading information about past performance, and reading what others who are waaay smarter than me, and then adding my own thought process into the forecast. When all of the models agree (which happens) writing a post becomes easy. When they don’t agree it can become a lot harder because one model for winter weather is post season Tom Brady (almost always an MVP), and the others are post season Peyton (almost always worthless).
The “Tom Brady” model, or the Euro, is very very good at what it does and rarely misses. The “Peyton” models are the American GFS and the Canadian GEM. For this storm the GFS and GEM are saying the NYC area is in line for a major storm, and the Euro has the NYC area in the dinky nuance snow. How fitting the weekend Brady and Manning play each other, these models are going against each other. Of course Peyton could win, but no one who follows football outside of Denver believes he will. Tom Brady will probably mop up and win another ring. In our case with the weather, I’m betting our Tom Brady secures another victory.
So if you love snow get on a train tomorrow and go down to DC, just like if you wanted to build a franchise to go to the Super Bowl now, you’d probably start with Tom Brady. Otherwise New York probably gets an El Nino style Manning Face!
NYC Area (North and West):
Tom Brady Wins:
2-5″ Everywhere NW of the city, with the highest totals in the immediate NYC area
5-9″ Everywhere South of Perth Amboy
12-18″ Everywhere in NYC and south
8-12″ Areas north and west of NYC
Tom Brady Wins: 12-24″ increasing as you go south of I-95 exit 67 in Whitemarsh MD
Peyton Wins: 18-24 everywhere