Well, sometimes Peyton does break through and wins.Most model are now in agreement that the northern cutoff of the heavy snow will make it up to New York City area, especially those areas in NJ south of 287. Areas even further south could see over 20″ of snow!
Why? Extremely warm ocean waters and weaker high pressure. Earlier in the week I touched on El Nino and the warm November and December it produced. As a result the of that warmth the Atlantic Ocean in the northeast is probably 2-3 degrees warm than it typically is which makes a huge difference in storms like this. With the cold air firmly in place, moisture laden energy, and warmer waters the storm can really bomb out and push high pressure away.
This is something all the models handled poorly with regard to the NYC metro area (The euro for this storm in the mid Atlantic has been spot on the entire way). The GFS and Canadian handled it correctly in the beginning but then went the euro route starting Tuesday. Only in the last “2 minutes of the game” 36-48 hours out did everything start coming back north.
So in a way this storm and the difficulties forecasting it for the NYC metro area resembled the AFC championship game in 2006 when Peyton some how rallied back after being 18 down.
Enjoy the snow everyone!
NYC Area #1: South of Nyack and North Cross County
NYC Area #2: South of Cross County Expressway/North of 287 in NJ/And the NJ Coast
NYC Area #3: South of 287 and West of the garden state
Starts to arrive around 3 am then ramps up from there, before exiting sunday morning. Tip your delivery people or bar tenders generously!