Spring Tease…Winter’s Wrath

We all thought winter was over with near record setting warmth in February. I enjoyed two donut runs on my bike. Of course the mind wandered to sunny warm evening with my son, and grilling on the deck of our home. Ooooooooops. Instead we are basically Jon Snow. Winter died, came back to life, and now winter is coming.

March is often a hit or miss month with snow and storms, but because of the changing of seasons there are times wicked nor’easters will develop and pummel the east coast with snow. What’s unique about this storm is all of the weather models (big supercomputers that run a million simulations of what is going to happen) are in agreement, and have been for the last 3 days. Essentially this means the storm, like a Lannister will always pay its debt, but instead of gold we get a lot of snow!

The biggest unknown at this point is the track of the storm. The models are usually a great predictor, but with nor’easters a 20 mile difference can make all the difference.  In this case 20 miles more inland and rain will mix in. If it moves of the coast a little more we will still see big snow totals.

What to Expect:

The storm is going to move in the early hours of Tuesday, go all day and some snow on Wednesday. In the Metro area we should see 12-24 inches of snow. However for those in the coastal areas of NJ, south of Perth Amboy and east of the Garden State Parkway you will probably see much less as rain mixes in. In these coastal totals will be 3-10″. With totals increasing as you move away from the coast.

UPDATE #1:

I was a little over confident with my last forecast especially given it was 3 days out. What we know is a powerful storm is shaping up, what is very very uncertain now is track and intensity. Much like Jon Snow growing over confident in the battle of the bastards, the overconfidence can lead to dangerous decisions.

Confidence Levels:

4″+: 80%
8″+: 50%
12″+: 35%
18″+: 20%

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