Knights of the Vale

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Jon Snow was certainly going to die, again and painfully, and then he didn’t. The Battle of the Bastards was one of the most exciting and gut wrenching episodes of G.O.T.  Yesterday was the equivalent of that episode with predicting this storm.

Coastal storms go through model runs, after model runs, after model runs. As you get closer to the storm, the model runs become more reliable. At the beginning of the battle I was hopefully and thought not doubt Jon Snow will prevail, and then the arrow got Rickon and you got the feeling this isn’t going to go as I thought.

The Battle of the Bastards makes for a good analogy for this storm. Our Rickon moment came as the midday data started rolling in and the storm got weaker and none of them could agree on the track and intensity.  The real pain started when Wun Wun died in the battle and likewise the best model in the business, the Euro, at midday killed the storm almost entirely. The Ensemble Euro (the averages of multiple model runs) wasn’t as bad, but still provided cause for hope concern. At this point Ramsey and his crew of heathens had surrounded the storm and were ready to “kill” the potential for a massive east coast storm. At 6 PM Jon Snow was on his last breath, gasping for air…….and then BOOOOOOOOOM the Knights of the Vale has arrived.

Coastal storms are always tricky and often times there are a slew of runs that are confusing and force people to challenge what’s going to happen. Even more the case in the middle of March. These storms are tricky because everything depends on how fast they intensify, how much they intensify, and most importantly track. To far west and we get mixing and rain, to far east and we get a lot of cold, a lot of wind, but minimal snow.

At about 10:45 last night everything started to become clear again, and then at 1:30 our Knight of The Vale moment arrived. The Euro, and its ensemble, reverted back to what it had been saying for the last 5 days, the other models joined in the party and soon enough Sansa was feeding Ramsey to his own dogs.

Of course things can still change but confidence levels for a major blizzard are back up and the metro area should prepare.

What to Expect:

If you are camped inside your apartment make sure to tip your delivery people like kings because all day tuesday should be windy, snowy, and all around terrible. I’d expect city schools to be closed on Tuesday. If you live outside the 5 boroughs, or don’t have access to the subway, I’d expect to work from home on wednesday as transportation will be a mess.

NYC Metro, North and Western Suburbs:

Likely Snow Total: 12-18″
High End: 16-22″ (25% chance)
Low End: 8-12″ (25% chance)

South of Perth Amboy, East of the Garden State:
4-10″: Higher totals as you move west and North.

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