Well, Well, Well………….We’ve seen an extremely busy March. This March, like last year except even colder and snowier, has flopped with February. Which is torture because when you get through February the mind always starts to switch to spring mode and everything that comes with it; Longer days, beautiful corn snow, starting to work on the tan line uniform on your bike, and BBQ. At the end of the day we all want spring, but in reality winter is ignoring spring and is going to do a Flyby even though the pattern is full.
While a funny moment in Top Gun, for anyone with young children (especially toddlers) hoping for spring just know that we (parents of young children) are the guy holding the hot coffee, and Maverick is winter. No matter how much the tower guy wants Maverick to not flyby, Maverick is going to buzz the tower everytime. Our fly by in the Tri state area is yet another coastal nor’easter that is likely to bring a significant amount of snow, wind, and some coastal flooding to the Tri-State area.
The reason we have this pattern is because of an unrelenting Greenland Block. At the beginning of the month it was at historic levels and produced the first nor’easter for the area. It’s still in place and we are on nor’easter #4. When a block like this sets up I’d call the east coast a target rich environment. Bogeys race across the country hit the coast and then Maverick engages in a fire fight. And with the Greenland Block serving as our wingman it’s easy for Maverick to engage, get radarlock, engage, and splashdown. Normally a scene we’d cheer for, but for any spring and warmer weather lovers this is most definitely a moment to boo.
There is always uncertainty with exact track and coastal storms, this is no different. However, unlike the previous storms there is colder air in place, and the storm itself is colder. Because of these factors when it starts snowing it will be much closer too or below freezing across the area, which means even light or moderate snow will stick. With the last 2 Wednesday storms (yup this is the third Wednesday in a row a storm has targeted the area), it’s been too warm at the surface to support accumulation when snow is light or moderate (anything less than an inch an hour). For this storm, with surface temperatures being colder, when it snows it will stick, especially on grass. So even with an eastward track shift, we will still see periods of moderate to heavy snow for an extended period of time. Sorry Goose it’s time to buzz the tower……
NYC Metro and Northwest Suburbs:
Bust (15%): 6-8″
Likely (60%): 8 – 14″
BOOM (25%): 12-16″
Coastal NJ and Long Island:
Bust (25%): 3-6″
Likely (60%): 5-9″
Boom (15%): 8-12″